Conditional probability in
statistics is the type of probability where one investigates the chance of one
event happening given that another event is known to have happened. This is
often written in symbols as P(A|B), meaning the probability of event A
occurring given that event B has occurred
What is the probability of
P(M|C) where M is the event "has studied for a degree in mathematics" and C is
the event "is a stand-up comedian"
In other words what is the chance
of someone having a maths degree given that they are a stand-up
comedian?
We need evidence:
| Comedian |
Studied for a maths
degree? |
P(M|C) |
| Dara O Briain |
Yes |
1 |
| Bill Bailey |
No (music) |
0.5 |
| Eddie Izzard |
Yes |
0.667 |
| Dave Gorman |
Yes |
0.75 |
| Jack Dee |
No (catering industry) |
0.6 |
| Ross Noble |
No |
0.5 |
So, based on a sample of 6, our current best
estimate is P(M|C) = 0.5 |
|
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